RADAR TULUNGAGUNG – The Eid al-Fitr 2026 date in Indonesia could differ again between the government and Muhammadiyah as astronomical calculations show the crescent moon may not meet visibility criteria at the end of Ramadan.

Director of Islamic Affairs at Indonesia’s Ministry of Religious Affairs, Arsyad Hidayat, addressed the possibility during a press conference on current religious issues in Jakarta on Monday, March 9, 2026. He said the Eid al-Fitr 2026 date remains uncertain because the moon’s position at the end of Ramadan still falls below the visibility standards used by Southeast Asian countries.

According to Arsyad, the Eid al-Fitr 2026 date determined by the government could differ from Muhammadiyah’s decision because both sides apply different calculation methods when determining the start of the Islamic month of Shawwal.

Hilal Position Still Below MABIMS Standard

Arsyad explained that astronomers analyzed the crescent moon, or hilal, at the end of Ramadan using hisab calculations. The results show that the moon will appear at a relatively low position across Indonesia.

The hilal altitude ranges between 0 and 3 degrees, with the highest position predicted in Aceh. Meanwhile, the elongation, which measures the angular distance between the moon and the sun, ranges between 4 and 6 degrees.

Some regions may reach the minimum altitude requirement. However, the elongation measurement still falls below the official threshold used by Southeast Asian countries.

The MABIMS criteria, adopted by Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore, require the crescent moon to reach a minimum altitude of 3 degrees and an elongation of at least 6.4 degrees before observers can confirm its visibility.

“From the altitude side, some areas may meet the requirement. However, the elongation still remains below the minimum limit,” Arsyad said.

Because of these conditions, astronomers consider the hilal difficult to observe during the moon-sighting process at the end of Ramadan.

Government Awaits Isbat Session

Despite the early astronomical analysis, the Ministry of Religious Affairs will determine the official Eid al-Fitr 2026 date through the national isbat session.

Authorities scheduled the meeting for March 19, 2026, which coincides with 29 Ramadan 1447 Hijri.

During the session, government officials, astronomers, and Islamic scholars will review astronomical calculations and rukyatul hilal observations from multiple observation points across Indonesia.

Arsyad asked the public to wait for the official decision rather than relying solely on early predictions.

“If we strictly follow the MABIMS visibility criteria, people will likely struggle to see the hilal. However, we will confirm everything during the isbat session on March 19,” he said.

Government Projection Points to March 21

Researchers from Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency previously estimated that the Eid al-Fitr 2026 date set by the government could fall on March 21, 2026.

Astronomers based this projection on the position of the crescent moon during sunset on March 19, 2026 across Southeast Asia. Their calculations show that the hilal may not satisfy the MABIMS visibility criteria on that evening.

If observers cannot confirm the moon’s visibility, Ramadan will last 30 days, which places the first day of Shawwal on March 21, 2026.

This method combines astronomical calculations with direct moon observation, a process that the Indonesian government consistently applies when determining the Islamic calendar.

Muhammadiyah Already Announces Eid Date

Meanwhile, Muhammadiyah has already announced its Eid schedule.

The organization released Maklumat Number 2/Maklumat/I.0/2025, which sets the start of Ramadan, Shawwal, and Dhulhijjah for the Islamic year 1447 Hijri.

Muhammadiyah applies the hisab hakiki wujudul hilal method. This approach declares the start of a new Islamic month once the crescent moon rises above the horizon, regardless of whether observers can see it directly.

Based on that calculation, Muhammadiyah states that 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijri will fall on March 20, 2026.

Because the organization uses a different method, Muhammadiyah followers may celebrate Eid one day earlier than the national date set by the government.

Public Waits for Final Announcement

The potential difference in the Eid al-Fitr 2026 date reflects the ongoing discussion between astronomical calculation methods and moon observation practices in Indonesia.

Although predictions suggest a possible difference, the government will announce the final national Eid date after the isbat session on March 19, 2026.

Until that announcement appears, Indonesian Muslims across the country continue to wait for confirmation about when they will celebrate the end of Ramadan and welcome Eid al-Fitr.