RADAR TULUNGAGUNG -The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) opened the week under significant pressure as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East shook global financial markets. The IHSG weakened alongside regional and global stock markets, reflecting investors’ concerns about rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
During early trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the IHSG experienced a sharp correction. Around 51 minutes after the market opened at 09:00 Western Indonesia Time, the index fell by 3.12 percent, equivalent to about 233 basis points. The decline occurred as global market sentiment turned negative due to intensifying conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Market participants closely monitored the situation, especially after reports of attacks on key energy infrastructure in the region.
Oil Price Surge Adds Pressure on IHSG
According to Octavianus Audi, VP of Equity Retail at Kiwoom Securities, global geopolitical developments continue to weigh heavily on the IHSG. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted several critical points in the global energy supply chain.
Reports indicate that attacks targeted the Haifa refinery, tanker vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. These developments have triggered fears of supply shortages and pushed crude oil prices significantly higher.
As of Monday morning trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reached approximately USD115 per barrel, while Brent crude traded slightly higher at around USD116 per barrel.
Higher oil prices typically increase global inflation risks. For investors, this situation creates uncertainty in the financial markets. As a result, capital outflows from emerging markets may occur, placing additional pressure on stock indices such as the IHSG.
“The main sentiment currently affecting the market comes from geopolitical tensions that threaten global energy supply chains,” Audi explained.
Energy Sector Also Weakens
Despite rising oil prices globally, energy stocks in Indonesia did not show positive performance. Instead, the sector moved in line with the broader market downturn.
The IDX Energy sector recorded a decline of about 3.67 percent, reflecting the negative sentiment dominating the trading session. Almost all sectors on the exchange experienced corrections as investors adopted a cautious stance.
Analysts warned that the IHSG could face deeper declines if key technical levels fail to hold. Audi stated that the critical support level currently sits at 7,400 points.
However, real-time trading data already showed the index slipping below that level and approaching the 7,300 range. If selling pressure continues, the IHSG may fall further toward 7,200 points.
Rupiah Weakens Close to 17,000 per Dollar
The pressure on Indonesia’s financial markets also affected the national currency. The rupiah weakened against the US dollar as global risk sentiment deteriorated.
Data from Bloomberg around 09:45 Western Indonesia Time showed the rupiah depreciating by 0.30 percent, reaching approximately Rp16,976 per US dollar. The currency is now approaching the psychological level of Rp17,000 per dollar.
Chief analyst at Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, explained that the rupiah’s decline largely reflects rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The escalation of conflict has triggered risk-off sentiment in global markets, pushing investors toward safe assets and strengthening the US dollar,” he said.
Lukman estimated that the rupiah could move within a range of Rp16,850 to above Rp17,000 per dollar during Monday’s trading session.
Gold Prices Surprisingly Decline
Interestingly, while geopolitical tensions usually boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, the precious metal moved in the opposite direction during early trading.
Global gold prices fell by around 1.16 percent, trading near USD5,099 per troy ounce during the morning session.
Currency and commodity observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that gold prices still respond to various global market dynamics, including interest rate expectations and broader investor sentiment.
If gold prices break the first support level at USD5,095 per troy ounce, analysts estimate that domestic gold prices could hover around Rp3.30 million per gram.
Meanwhile, the next support level for gold is projected near USD4,959 per troy ounce, which could further influence local bullion prices.
Investors Remain Cautious
With geopolitical tensions continuing to escalate, investors are expected to remain cautious in the near term. Market volatility could persist as traders monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly those affecting energy infrastructure and global oil supply.
For the IHSG, analysts suggest that market direction in the coming days will largely depend on global sentiment, commodity prices, and currency movements.
If geopolitical risks intensify further, pressure on Indonesia’s stock market and currency may continue.