RADAR TULUNGAGUNG – The Eid al-Fitr 2026 prediction has begun to attract public attention as Muslims prepare to conclude the holy month of Ramadan next year. Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) recently released its astronomical analysis regarding the possible date of Lebaran 1447 Hijri.

According to the Eid al-Fitr 2026 prediction issued by BMKG, the holiday marking the end of Ramadan is expected to fall on Saturday, March 21, 2026. The estimate is based on the astronomical calculation method known as hisab, which determines the position of the moon using scientific data.

However, BMKG emphasized that the Eid al-Fitr 2026 prediction is still preliminary. The final and official decision regarding the start of Shawwal will remain the authority of Indonesia’s Ministry of Religious Affairs through the national isbat session.

Crescent Moon Position Becomes Key Factor

Himawan Widianto, Head of the Time Signal Working Team at BMKG, explained that astronomers analyzed the position of the crescent moon, or hilal, on 29 Ramadan 1447 Hijri, which coincides with March 19, 2026.

Their calculations show that the moon’s position on that evening will not fully meet the visibility criteria used in Southeast Asia.

BMKG data show that the hilal altitude will vary across regions. The lowest position will appear at 0 degrees 54 minutes 27 seconds in Merauke, while the highest altitude will reach 3 degrees 7 minutes 52 seconds in Sabah.

Astronomers also measured the elongation, which describes the angular distance between the moon and the sun. The elongation will range from 4 degrees 32 minutes 40 seconds in Waris, Papua, to 6 degrees 6 minutes 10 seconds in Banda Aceh.

These astronomical parameters play a crucial role in determining the start of a new Islamic month.

MABIMS Criteria Guide Hilal Observation

Countries in Southeast Asia follow the MABIMS criteria to determine the visibility of the crescent moon. The standard requires the moon to meet at least one of two conditions.

First, the hilal altitude must reach at least 3 degrees. Second, the elongation must reach a minimum of 6.4 degrees.

BMKG’s analysis shows that the moon will not consistently meet those thresholds across Indonesia on March 19, 2026. In several locations, the altitude and elongation remain below the required level.

Because of this situation, experts expect Ramadan 1447 Hijri to last 30 full days.

If that scenario occurs, the first day of Shawwal, when Muslims celebrate Eid al-Fitr, will fall on March 21, 2026, according to BMKG’s astronomical projection.

Government Will Confirm Date Through Isbat Session

Despite the scientific prediction, BMKG emphasized that the Indonesian government will announce the final Eid date after holding the national isbat session.

The Ministry of Religious Affairs has scheduled the meeting for Thursday, March 19, 2026. Representatives from Islamic organizations, scholars, astronomers, and government officials will attend the session.

During the meeting, participants will examine both astronomical data and rukyatul hilal observations, which involve directly sighting the crescent moon from multiple observation points across Indonesia.

After reviewing the evidence, the government will officially announce the start of Shawwal and confirm the national Eid celebration date.

Muhammadiyah Announces Different Date

While the government still awaits the isbat session, one of Indonesia’s largest Islamic organizations has already declared its own Eid schedule.

The Central Board of Muhammadiyah announced that 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijri will fall on Friday, March 20, 2026.

Muhammadiyah relies on the hisab hakiki wujudul hilal method, which determines the beginning of the Islamic month once the crescent moon appears above the horizon, regardless of whether observers can see it.

This methodological difference sometimes leads to variations in Eid celebrations in Indonesia. However, both approaches rely on scientific calculations and Islamic jurisprudence.

Public Awaits Official Eid Announcement

As Ramadan 1447 Hijri approaches, many Indonesians will closely follow updates about the Eid al-Fitr 2026 prediction.

BMKG’s astronomical calculations offer an early picture of the potential Lebaran date. Nevertheless, the government’s decision during the isbat session will ultimately determine when Muslims across the country celebrate the holiday.

Until then, the public continues to wait for the official announcement that will mark the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Eid festivities.